Read Part 1 of this series here

Last year, Ansar Allah initiated attacks in the Red Sea to pressure Israel to halt its assaults on Palestinians. They're not blockading the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, or the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait but are targeting US, UK, and Israeli-linked ships. With over 500,000 fighters, including 200,000 recent enlistees, Ansar Allah is no longer a ragtag militia but a significant force. They have pioneered blockades without a navy and launched attacks on US navy ships and commercial vessels with anti-ship missiles.

Like Hamas, Ansar Allah, colloquially known as "The Houthis," represents a mass popular movement including an armed wing. Since 2015, they have been engaged in combat against Al-Qaeda, backed by the US and the Saudi Coalition. Despite Saudi Arabia's eight-year intervention in Yemen, Ansar Allah continued weapon development. Many Yemeni naval forces defected to Ansar Allah, providing them with experienced naval crews. Besides receiving aid from Iran, Ansar Allah also amassed weapons from previous conflicts in Yemen.

The Saudi Coalition's air campaign ultimately failed, exacting a heavy toll on Yemeni civilians. Countless lives were lost, and millions faced starvation due to the coalition's blockade. The enforced starvation and collective punishment in Gaza mirror the suffering endured by Yemenis during the Saudi Coalition's intervention in the civil war.  

According to Mohammed Al Bulhaiti, for Yemen the current US and UK strikes pale in comparison to the losses they endured over the past eight years. In fact, western aggression has unified Yemen, a country previously divided due to the proxy-led civil war. While Iran supports various Shiite Arab militias, including Ansar Allah, Hamas, the PLA, the Iraqi Resistance, the Syrian army, and Hezbollah, they do not exercise control over them. Iran merely acts as an "arms dealer" for Ansar Allah, providing weapons and aiding in missile technology development.  

History of Western Intervention in The Red Sea Crisis

From the outset, the USA's NATO and EU allies were hesitant to attack Yemen. Several NATO countries declined to join the coalition, and Saudi Arabia abstained from Operation Prosperity Guardian and the Naval Coalition. Bahrain was the sole Arab nation to participate, reflecting Ansar Allah's strategic victory over the Saudi-led naval coalition formed in 2015. The current US Navy Coalition responding to the Red Sea Crisis is the largest naval force since WW2.

Ansar Allah has issued threats against countries assisting the United States in attacking Yemen. The UAE and Qatar used to permit the US to use their intelligence aircraft, while Saudi Arabia conducted naval strikes during their intervention. However, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait have now restricted airspace access for US attacks on Yemen.

The West is determined to halt Ansar Allah's attacks, going so far as to authorize strikes on Yemen bypassing Congress and Parliament. At first, the USA sought Iran's assistance, to restrain Ansar Allah, later turning to China to pressure Iran regarding the Houthis. However, Ansar Allah has rejected third-party negotiations on their behalf. The unauthorized strikes on Yemen gave Washington a 60-day window to continue operations, considered unrelated to self-defense. March 12th marked the cutoff deadline. Now, the US must find a legal loophole or declare war on the Houthis to sustain their attacks.

The US Navy appears to face operational challenges. Biden administration officials informed Congress of difficulties in pinpointing Houthi production sites in Yemen, resulting in ineffective strikes.

According to The New York Times, the USA struggles to identify significant strike targets due to the concealment of most Houthi weapons, similar to Hamas tactics. Many of these weapons are hidden deep underground when not showcased at military parades.

And the expenses of the USA's anti-Houthi coalition are escalating. According to a February report by 60 Minutes, the US Navy launched approximately 100 missiles, each costing up to $4 million each, targeting relatively inexpensive Houthi drones and missiles. The US also recently lost two MQ-9 drones valued at $30 million each, destroyed by a $10,000 Houthi missile. The failed Saudi intervention in Yemen had also been expensive, costing over $6 billion a month for seven consecutive years.

Potential outcomes and risks

The US considers Ansar Allah as a potential threat to its navy, given their missile arsenal comparable to most state actors, supplied by Iran and even North Korea. This poses a risk of the US Navy depleting its missile stockpile needed to counter Houthi drones. Missile scarcity leaves the US navy vulnerable, especially in a potential conflict with China. 

Adding complexity, Saudi Arabia and Iran recently joined BRICS,  as previously facilitated China's rapprochement efforts between the two, potentially explaining Saudi Arabia's reluctance to engage. A senior Ansar Allah official has claimed collaboration with Russia and China within BRICS to undermine Western hegemony. This collaboration may explain Russia's awareness of Ansar Allah's ballistic missile testing and reports of their development of hypersonic missiles.

Ansar Allah has recently expanded its blockade, using new missiles to extend its reach. Such weaponry could potentially sink US naval vessels. Ansar Allah remains steadfast, intensifying efforts by broadening their blockade to include Zionist-linked ships in the Indian Ocean and beyond. 

This move could significantly impede Israel's ability to bypass the blockade. Then there is the vulnerability of the "land bridge" route, facilitating supplies from Indian ports to the UAE and onward to Israel. Disruption of this route could jeopardize Israeli access to Indian imports, also impacting European reliance on Russian crude transported through India.

With their acquisition of long-range weapons, Ansar Allah can now pose a threat to Zionist-linked ships in the Mediterranean Sea. Such a development would further strain EU and Israeli gas supplies. After October 7th, Ansar Allah sought access to surrounding countries to engage in ground combat against Israel, yet none granted permission. However, if the Israel-Palestine conflict escalates to involve other nations, this permission could be granted. 

The risk to global trade is significant, with the blockade causing Suez Canal trade to plummet by half. Many shipping companies are opting to bypass the route to avoid increased insurance premiums due to the "risk of war." As a consequence, there has been a 74% surge in trade around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope, making the area a target for Houthi missile strikes. 

Since January, there have also been discussions of Ansar Allah severing Israel's oil supplies from the Strait of Hormuz. This move would not only affect Israel but also leave Europe vulnerable, as they have reduced their reliance on Russian oil imports and increasingly depend on other sources.

Conclusion

After several months, the US Navy's efforts to degrade Ansar Allah's blockade capabilities have proven unsuccessful. The question remains: what desperate measures will they resort to next? With the capacity to target new trade routes, Ansar Allah could launch attacks in the Mediterranean Sea, Indian Ocean, Cape of Good Hope, and the Strait of Hormuz. Such actions would leave pipelines from West Asia and Israel’s Arab allies as the sole option for Israel and its allies to import oil from the Islamic world. Moreover, this would significantly strain global trade and potentially tie up more naval patrols in these regions, at a time when the US seeks to confront China.