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Brian Berletic

Feb 18, 2024

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for February 18, 2024…

- UPDATE: Russia takes all of Avdeevka after Ukrainian forces begin fleeing crumbling defenses;

- Despite attempts to portray a change in Ukrainian military leadership as necessary to address Ukraine’s many and growing problems on the battlefield, the change reflected political motivations rather than improving strategic or tactical capabilities;

- The Western media continues to depict Ukraine’s military deficiencies as resulting from delayed Western funding, however the actual problem stems from unsolveable military industrial limits;

- The West and the US in particular continues operating from the flawed assumption that despite Russia’s advantages in quantity, the US can overcome Russian capabilities through superior innovation;

- Attempts to increase production of air defense systems and artillery munitions are falling far short of Ukraine’s battlefield requirements and further expansion will require years of additional investments not even being discussed at the moment;

- Claims that Ukraine will build up its own military industrial capacity is unrealistic considering how difficult this process is for the West under the most ideal conditions outside of a warzone;


NYT - Losing Ground, Ukraine Seeks New Positions Around Avdiivka (February 17, 2024):

Vox Ukraine - The Network of Russian Propaganda: What Connects Western “Experts” Promoting Narratives Beneficial to Russia (February 9, 2024):

Vox Ukraine - 2021-2022 Annual Report:

BBC - Ukraine underplays role of far right in conflict (December 2014):

The Hill - The reality of neo-Nazis in Ukraine is far from Kremlin propaganda (November 2017):

Telegraph - Ukraine crisis: the neo-Nazi brigade fighting pro-Russian separatists (August 2014, archived):

RFE/RL - Azov, Ukraine's Most Prominent Ultranationalist Group, Sets Its Sights On U.S., Europe (November 2018):

CNN - Outmanned and outgunned: Ukraine’s new army chief faces big challenges in taking the fight to Russia (February 10, 2024):

Al Jazeera - For Ukraine’s defence industry goals against Russia, the sky’s the limit (February 12, 2024):

Norwegian Gov - Norway provide more NASAMs to Ukraine (December 2023):

Defense News - Raytheon wins $1.2 billion surface-to-air missile order for Ukraine (December 2022):

Rheinmetall - Rheinmetall wins major artillery ammunition order for Ukraine wroth over 140 million euros (December 2023):

The Guardian - ‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners (February 15, 2024):

Reuters - Russia relying on old stocks after losing 3,000 tanks in Ukraine, leading military research centre says (February 13, 2024):

IISS - Equipment losses in Russia’s war on Ukraine mount (February 12, 2024):

Moscow Times - Ukraine's Tank Numbers Now Equal Russia's – Analysis (July 2023):

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