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The New Atlas

Apr 7, 2024

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for April 8, 2024…

- Ukrainian forces continue losing territory as arms, ammunition, and manpower shortages continue to grow;

- Ammunition "initiatives" across Europe claiming to have found "millions" of artillery rounds gloss over important factors such as caliber, interoperability, and the condition of rounds held in storage;

- At best, the initiatives will temporarily provide Ukraine with enough ammunition to match previous rates of fire, but other critical shortages will continue to grow meaning the vector sum of the fighting will still favor Russian forces;

- Attempts by the US and Europe to intervene in Ukraine as a means of checking Russian advances may end in even worse defeat for the collective West;

- Attempts by Ukraine to target Russian oil refineries have led Western analysts to falsely conflate fuel export bans with perceived damage and repair efforts;

- Claims that Russia is unable to repair energy production infrastructure are based on the same flawed reasoning that led many Western analysts to assume Russia's military industrial base would be crippled following Western sanctions;

References: BBC - Barrage of Russian attacks aims to cut Ukraine's lights: The Independent - ‘Building destroyers’: The Russian glide bombs changing the face of the war on Ukraine’s eastern front: Forbes - Estonia Just Found Another Million Shells For Ukraine (April 6, 2024): Reuters - NATO pushes for common standards to tackle shortfalls in artillery munitions (June 2023): WSJ - Ukraine’s ‘Mad Max’ Trawls Swamps and Minefields for Shells (April 6, 2024): Forbes - Ukraine Could Get Millions Of Artillery Shells—And Soon. It’s Getting Its Best Guns Ready To Fire Away (March 29, 2024): Financial Times - Yellen warns China of ‘significant consequences’ if its companies support Russia’s war in Ukraine (April 6, 2024): Washington Post - With no way out of a worsening war, Zelensky’s options look bad or worse (April 6, 2024): Alexander Mercouris - Rus Storms Chasov Yar, Zelensky No Good Options; China: US Trapped Ukr, US Edgy Iran Attack Israel (April 7, 2024): Reuters - Exclusive: US sanctions hamper Russian efforts to repair refineries (April 4, 2024): NYT - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 2023): Reuters - Russian refineries targeted by Ukraine's drones (April 2, 2024): AJ - Russia orders halt on petrol exports (February 2024): CNBC - Russia’s indefinite ban on diesel exports threatens to aggravate a global shortage (September 2023):

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