The US is reusing the same stale Ukraine playbook to provoke China through its province, Taiwan. Victoria Nuland orchestrated the Ukraine disaster; her replacement, Kurt Campbell, is pivoting the imperialist war drive to China. Campbell was a central figure advocating the Obama Administration’s pivot to Asia, which he laid out in his book, “The Pivot.” Campbell recently argued that Japan and AUKUS (a UK-US-Australia Submarine coalition) could help the Chinese province of Taiwan “enhance peace and stability,” drawing strong condemnation from Beijing.

A Long History of US stoking China-Taiwan tensions

Taiwan is an island in the Asia Pacific region just 19 miles away from mainland China. The US officially recognizes it as part of China and Beijing considers Taiwan an important Chinese province and any weaponization of separatists therein to be an existential threat. As of today, only 14 countries worldwide consider Taiwan a separate country.

Throughout history, Beijing’s enemies used Taiwan as a sea-based entry point to invade China. During WW2, Imperial Japan occupied Taiwan and used the island to invade China, just as Nazi Germany used Ukraine to attack Russia. During the Chinese Revolution and civil war, anti-communist separatists fled to Taiwan in 1949 and declared themselves the legitimate government of China, ushering in two competing “Chinese governments.”  

Then, in 1955, the U.S. and Taiwan formed an atomic energy agreement, which led to the creation of Taiwan’s nuclear program. Under U.S. president Richard Nixon, the U.S. restarted diplomatic relations with China and agreed to Three Communiques.

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🇺🇸🇹🇼🇨🇳 “We don't support independence for Taiwan.” ➡️ Why militarize Taiwan then? @MyLordBebo | Boost us! | X

The One China policy deems Taiwan an autonomous region of China, like Hong Kong, as the island has special “democratic freedoms” compared to mainland China. The U.S. still claims to adhere to this policy and the Three Communiques, despite violating them in spirit, including the gradual reduction and cessation of arms sales to Taiwan. Yet, in a recent bill passed last week, the U.S. allocated $8.12 billion for the Indo-Pacific region, including Taiwan.

Former State Department Deputy Director of Taiwan Chas Freeman has noted the obvious; that the stationing of U.S. forces in Taiwan violates longstanding US-China agreements, including the One China Policy and the Third Communique, in which the US agreed to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan. Despite this, Washington threatened to intervene if Beijing continues “coercive methods of implementing the One China principle.”

Current Grievances Inflamed by U.S. imperialism

Taiwan’s Defense Minister recently admitted that US Special Operations forces are stationed on Kinmen Island, just 4 miles away from mainland China and that U.S. troops are already training Taiwanese troops in drone warfare. In fact, the U.S. has supplied Taiwan with the some of the same weapons as Ukraine and also plans to deploy ballistic missiles to the region.

Within recent months, two Chinese fishermen drowned after fleeing the Taiwanese Coast Guard; in response, the Chinese Coast Guard began patrolling their territorial waters off the coast of the Kinmen Islands, in the South China Sea. This confrontation increased maritime disputes and clashes between the Taiwanese Coast Guard and Chinese fishing vessels, echoing a similar incident that occurred last year. 

The U.S. has historically inflamed territorial disputes between the Philippines and China. The Philippines only began to assert its territorial rights to the South China Sea in the 1970s, when it crashed a ship in into a shoal near China, and has demanded the right to resupply it ever since.

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🇵🇭🇨🇳 The Philippines is preparing to join the "race" to expand the disputed islands in the South China Sea, along with China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces recently announced plans for large-scale construction on nine controlled islands. It was already speculated in December of last year that the disputed territories under the control of the Philippines would undergo significant modernization. Local politicians at that time called for the construction of a facility on the Second Thomas Shoal to assert their territorial claims. In the same month, a new coast guard station was built on Thitu Island. These plans indicate the intention of the Philippine defense establishment to catch up quickly. During the reign of former President Rodrigo Duterte, no such activities were carried out on the islands. Currently, the People's Republic of China, Vietnam, and even Taiwan are strengthening their control over the territories on the islands. In this "competition," China is currently leading in terms of bulk works in the water area. It is likely that the Philippines will also pursue the strategy of creating artificial territories to expand their holdings in the South China Sea. They may also construct military facilities, such as coast guard garrisons, to enhance their monitoring of PLA ships. 📌 The large-scale construction will undoubtedly provoke a negative reaction from China, which claims the territory. It is expected that the Chinese side will obstruct the Filipinos in every possible way during the construction, especially given how frequently it persecutes and expels Filipino fishermen from the waters. Therefore, the tension in the South China Sea will only escalate. View high-resolution map Read the English version #Philippines #China @rybar in collaboration with @awaken_dragon Support us Original msg

Washington uses maritime disputes between China and its breakaway province Taiwan, and other Southeast Asian nations, as a pretext to “protect global trade” and “freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea. But, as geopolitical analyst Carl Zha argues, why does global trade in Southeast Asia need to be protected from China? After all, 80% of all trade in the South China Sea goes to and from China.

The U.S. Navy has wargamed a scenario in which it would use the Strait of Malacca to choke off the Chinese energy supply, since over 80% of Chinese energy imports pass through it. But China has since diversified its energy imports, increasingly buying oil and gas from sanctioned Russia. Of course, if the U.S. were to blockade the Strait of Malacca, they’d endanger world trade, the very thing they accuse China of.

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The Malacca Dilemma: The Chinese Dragon’s Weak Spot? 🐉 🟠Recent Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea have highlighted the vulnerability of critical trade routes, such as the Strait of Malacca, connecting the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. 📍 Similar to the Suez Canal, this strait is of strategic importance to China as it provides access to the Indian Ocean. However, it is also a location rife with disputes, piracy incidents, and the potential for conflicts to arise if coastal nations cannot resolve their territorial disagreements. Why is the Strait of Malacca Crucial for China? ▪️It is the shortest and most economically advantageous route to the South China Sea through the Indian Ocean. ▪️It is the most heavily used waterway between the Middle East and East Asia. ▪️It represents one of the narrowest points in global trade routes. ▪️It facilitates 25% of global trade turnover. ▪️ The inauguration of the Myanmar-China oil pipeline in the strait, with a capacity of 22 million tons of oil annually, further enhances trade opportunities. Geopolitical Risks ▪️Offshore oil supplies that China receives from the Middle East and Africa are at risk. ▪️Dangers in Myanmar: Unrest there poses a threat to the oil pipelines that run through the country. With 135 different ethnic groups in Myanmar, many of them having their own militias, the situation is complex and adds to the risk of attacks on the pipelines. Boost us! | Subscribe to @geo_gaganauts

Further escalating tensions in the region, the U.S. Navy sailed through the Taiwan Straits for the first time in January, 2024. During that same month, Beijing was also angered by Washington's support for anti-China parties during Taiwan’s elections, condemning blatant election interference in Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate William Lai's successful election as the new president of Taiwan. China warned that the election was a referendum between “war and peace” and that the election of President Lai would bring the situation “ever closer to war and decline.” Shortly after, Taiwan stepped up its belligerent exercises. 

Duplicitous U.S. Policy Raises the Risk of War

Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command John Aquilino testified to Congress that this region is militarized “on a scale not seen since WWII, the PLA's buildup is occurring across land, sea, air, space, cyber, and information domains.”

The U.S. has engaged in exercises with their "allies" in their various anti-China actions. Washington seeks South Korea and Japan’s participation in military coalitions like NATO and AUKUS. Beijing cites Washington’s escalating provocations by this growing anti-China faction in the region as an example of a new “Cold War mindset.” 

Beijing reacted harshly to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s comments that “China is approaching NATO illegally. NATO is not going to Asia, but China is coming to us. We see them in Africa. We see them at the poles. We see them trying to take over critical infrastructure."

The US has wartime “operational control” over South Korea, which gives Washington total control of its troops in wartime, and allowing the U.S. to decide the time of war. The U.S. also hopes to negotiate operational control over Japan and to remilitarize it for the first time since 1945, violating its Constitution. Furthermore, U.S. imperialism seeks to revive airfields Guam that it had used to drop two nuclear bombs on a defeated Japan at the end of WW2.

In 2016, the RAND Corporation advised Washington to go to war with China before 2025. U.S. Army analysts also suggested destroying Taiwan’s semiconductor plants, so that Beijing couldn't reassert control of their strategic asset.

China’s Strategic Patience Wearing Thin

Beijing has also made its stance on the Taiwan crystal clear but, in the past several years, it has taken an even firmer stance in response to American provocations, recently sanctioning five American companies for direct support of Taiwanese separatists.

In a readout of the Biden administration's recent phone call with China’s president, Xi Jinping called Taiwan’s independence as the “reddest of red lines.” Beijing made it known to President Biden that China will not “sit on its hands” regarding the Taiwan question.