UKRAINE DISTRACTS FROM MULTIPLYING CATASTROPHES + WHY US ANALYSTS GET UKRAINE WRONG

Brian Berletic

Feb 4, 2024

Update for the conflict in Ukraine for February 4, 2024...

- Ukraine's reported sinking of Russian missile boat distracts from Ukraine's core weaknesses rather than helps address them;

- US analysts believe Ukraine can use 2024 to "rebuild" for 2025, failing to understand Ukraine and its Western sponsors lack the ability to do this, while Russia continues expanding its manpower and military industrial output;

- US analysts share a misconception that Russia's lack of territorial gains results from a lack of offensive potential rather than a deliberate choice to degrade Ukrainian forces first, and attack second;

- Attempts to draw drones from other areas of the battlefield to compensate for Ukrainian deficiencies in artillery ammunition simply creates two deficiencies out of one;

- US analysts believe in the inherent superiority of Western military power, causing all other aspects of their analysis to diverge from reality

References:

BBC - Ukraine 'hits Russian missile boat Ivanovets in Black Sea' (February 1, 2024): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe... age-in-2024/

OECD - Impacts of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine on the shipping and shipbuilding markets (November 2023): https://www.oecd.org/ukraine-hub/poli...

War on the Rocks - Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’[s Advantage in 2024 (January 26, 2024): https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hol...

RAND Corporation - Extending Russia (2019): https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_re...

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