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HAS PUTIN HAD ENOUGH OF WESTERN DUPLICITY? | BY CASSIE SIPE

Cassie Sipe

Dec 7, 2023

This article was republished from Cassie's Substack.


Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed earlier this year Ukraine and Russia negotiated a peace deal for Ukraine’s neutrality during peace talks in the spring of 2022. Of course, Boris Johnson derailed it, by offering to arm Ukraine should they keep fighting.


The question is, has Putin had enough of Western duplicity? That is what I am pondering today. Why would Russia take the “Collective West” at face value with their negotiations or agreements?


Have they learned nothing from the sham Grain Deal and the betrayal of the Minsk Agreements? Or were they simply checking off boxes as a last resort before further action? Why trust The West after they promised not to expand NATO yet did so anyway?Why enable Israel, as they Bomb Syria and arm Ukraine?


In this article, I will look at five ways The Collective West and Israel burned and betrayed Russia. A result of Russia’s soft foreign policy and the West’s flagrant disregard for shared agreements and Russia’s red lines.


1. Israel’s policy on Syria and Ukraine


While Israel claims to have a balanced approach when it comes to its relations with Russia and Ukraine it clearly favors the latter. From the start, it voted for a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion, at the UN. Despite Israel not directly arming Ukraine for the war, a Lithuanian group was able to donate Israeli Radar systems to Ukraine.


Israel allowed the US to send weapons from its stockpile to be sent to Ukraine via Israeli ports on the condition that the weapons be replaced. Israel went on to pledge support for Ukraine’s effort to develop an Early Warning Missile System.


While, Israel until now supposedly remained neutral towards Russia despite not being thrilled by Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria,  it should not be a surprise that Israel sided with Ukraine.


Although Turkey was involved in Ukraine’s unrealized plan to attack Russian troops stationed at Syria’s Latakia airport in 2022, one wonders  if Israel was also involved in planning the attack, using Ukraine as a conduit to attack the airport. Since then, Israel bombed the airport, targeting Iranian proxies earlier this fall.


In fact, Israel has a long history of arming and training Ukrainians. Going back to the beginning in 2014, the IDF was present at the Euromaidan protests. There they were under the direction of the Svoboda Party a neo nazi group. This event eventually led to the coup against Ukraine’s President. His ouster led to a Ukrainian civil war that became a proxy conflict between Russia and NATO in 2014. In 2022 it expanded into an all-out war with Russia’s invasion.


Besides the Svoboda Party, the IDF worked with yet another neo nazi group. The Azov Battalion is one of the many far-right Neo nazi battalions in the Ukrainian armed forces. Israel supplied them with weapons in 2018.


Despite this, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin have an agreement about ‘Russia’s Red lines’ in Syria. Ensuring neither side’s weapons will be used against each other. Since then, Ukraine accused Israel of betrayal due to its Agreement with Russia. Yet, it would be naïve to think Israel has not crossed Putin’s red lines in Ukraine. Why agree to such a deal when Israel continues to enable Ukraine and bomb Russia’s ally Syria?


Per their agreement, Russia refused to allow Syria to use its Russian-made S-300 missile system to target Israeli aircraft before the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Iran on the other hand was happy to strengthen Syria’s air defense against Israel.


Ukraine has been quite skilled at playing both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian conundrum. The leader of the Azov Battalion spoke at the Israeli Knesset last year during his tour of Israel. None the less,, the Azov Battalion underhandedly trained Hamas this summer. While as recently as this summer the IDF was fighting in Ukraine. Funny enough, Russian sources Report they have since left to fight Hamas.


Despite all of this, Russia announced this summer it would open an embassy in Jerusalem. Recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Holy City as its capital, something it criticized the US for doing in 2017.  Although, now with the situation in Gaza, Putin reaffirms the solution is for Israel to reduce itself to its 1967 borders which would grant Palestinian statehood but leave Israel without Jerusalem. Ironic, isn’t it?



2. 2022 Ukraine War Peace Plans


Russia withdrew its forces from Kiev following a Peace Plan signed in spring of 2022. They voluntarily gave up a key position thinking the war would come to a negotiated end. They should have known that like The Minsk agreements Ukraine and its allies were just stalling for time. Indeed, Boris Johnson flew to Ukraine to inform Zelensky ‘’the Collective West” was prepared to provide them with weapons if they kept fighting Russia.


3. Minsk Agreements


The Minsk Agreements were a series of peace agreements, of which the  EU helped broker. It included a cease-fire, prisoner exchanges and elections with autonomy for separatists and regions in Ukraine. The Minsk Agreements were signed by Russia and Ukraine in 2015. They could have nipped the conflict in the bud had they been adhered to. But as Angela Merkel admitted it was all just a ploy to buy time so NATO could train Ukraine’s military to its standards and prepare a vast network of trenches and tunnels a preemptive measure incase of a large-scale invasion beyond Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. NATO’s interference rendered the agreements meaningless.


4. NATO Expansion


A verbal Soviet-era agreement with the US agreed that NATO would not expand east. Yet within the last 20 years or so NATO has expanded to multiple former Warsaw Pact countries, despite the warnings by CIA Director William Burns of Russia’s potential reaction to Ukraine joining NATO.


 In 2008, NATO first made clear its plans for Ukraine’s NATO membership. The quick death of the Minsk Agreements allowed The Collective West to train Ukrainian troops to NATO standards in preparation for fighting Russia. With the 2022 peace agreement scuttled, they were able to trick Russia into pulling out of Kiev and quickly arm Ukraine to prolong the war.



5. Cold War treaties


A sign Russia has had enough of the duplicity, Putin suspended the INF Nuclear Treaty, which Trump had already withdrawn from previously. Early this year, Russia announced it intended to suspend the New Start Treaty due to NATO’s support for Ukraine. Given the history of Bush withdrawing from the ABM treaty and Trump withdrawing from the Open Skies treaty it left  the New Start treaty as the last nuclear treaty. The dissolution of which leaves open the possibility of an arms race.


In October, the Russian Duma prepared the withdraw from the CTBT treaty, a ban on nuclear testing. Although, at the time of this article President Putin has not signed the withdraw into law.


On the other hand, the US signed the treaty but never ratified it into law. Affirming that it made no sense to continue it, at a time in which Russian US relations are at their lowest level in history.


Similarly, the US and it’s allies never ratified the 1999 CFE treaty preventing it from being legally binding.. Russia originally suspended the treating in 2007 when NATO countries refused to ratify it after Russia intervened in Georgia in 2007.


This summer Russia withdrew from the CFE treaty, a treaty limiting the use of conventional armed forces. Russia cited Finland’s NATO membership and Sweden’s NATO application as the reason for the withdraw. In response to the Scandinavian countries plans, Russia militarized its border in 2022. This year Sweden and Finland  militarized their borders with Russia partly due to illegal immigrants from third countries invading their borders from Russia.


Conclusion


They say perception is reality. The West harped on and on about Russia wanting to ‘’recreate the Soviet Union’’ and grossly exaggerated the threat to Central and Eastern Europe when the war in Ukraine began. Now that Hamas attacked Israel this fall, Western media claims Putin is supporting Hamas because of Russia’s involvement in the release of hostages along with the Al Aqsa flood attack happened  on  October 7th, his birthday.


I do not know why Russia thinks that they can softly negotiate with their Western counterparts. Harsh negotiations, ultimatums, and leverage is the only thing the Collective West and Israel respond to. Stating their case for a neutral Ukraine and a Palestinian state will never actually be considered by their opponents until it is clear they have no choice but to form an agreement. Russia like a battered wife seems to assume the “Collective West" will change its behavior once a formal agreement is made. Russia’s willingness to negotiate is interpreted by the West as a sign of a ‘’weak’’ Russia, leaving them ripe for a double cross.


If Russia wises up they can end the war sooner. However,  if they continue their delusional thinking, viewing  The West and Israel “as honest brokers” with a lack of a strong response towards, they will continue to  be strung along. Such naïveté could lead to an expansion of both wars into wider conflicts and further disregard for Russia’s security concerns. Russia needs to accept that now that all of the Cold War era treaties are broken they’re officially party to a New Cold War and it’s time to act as such.


As a sign of change, Russia is now beginning to challenge the US presence in Syria. Putin recently condemned Israel for its attacks on civilians in Palestine, something it hasn’t done before.


For now, any strong action taken against Israel, or the West remains to be seen. Perhaps, with Israel’s genocide in Gaza and support for Ukraine forcing Russia to break its neutrality on Israel, Russia might finally wake up and use this opportunity to respond in kind.

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