What a Year it Was

First things first, happy New Year! We trust the previous year treated you kindly, and if not, the only way is up from here. The broader world however, may become more tumultuous as the crisis of late capitalism intensifies. 2024 appears to be shaping up as a crucial year in working class politics and for our world as a whole.

2023 was a year of once powerful institutions that showed many cracks in the imperialists' armor, and we must take note of these moments in reflecting on the upcoming year. 2024 will see elections in the United States, Russia, Brazil, and Taiwan, and other count-persistent conflicts, and the rise of a new influential alliance, 2024 appears poised to bring its own blend of successes and potential letdowns for the working class.

In 2023, formerly formidable imperialist institutions revealed significant vulnerabilities and we must take note of these moments in reflecting on the upcoming year. With elections scheduled in the United States, Russia, Brazil, and Taiwan, alongside persistent global conflicts and the emergence of a potent new anti-imperialist bloc, 2024 may see both achievements and setbacks for the global working class.

Will the Russia/Ukraine Conflict End in 2024?

February 24th, 2024 marks the second anniversary of the beginning of Russia’s special military operation to liberate areas of Ukraine from the Western-backed Kiev regime. As a result of Ukraine's failed counter offensive, NATO and other Western allies expected the July NATO Summit in Lithuania to be a place where they could celebrate Ukraine’s success on the battlefield and use it to leverage more aid from weary nations.

Instead the special guest and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was left with only empty promises and terrible optics. The US military later cited Ukraine's failed counteroffensive, which it had insisted upon without the essential air cover, as the reason for withholding future funds.

“Additional supplies would have already been provided if the counteroffensive had been more successful...We are used to saying that America likes to support the winner,” the former high-ranking NSC official and aid to George W. Bush, Michael Allen, told Newsweek.

We know that the conclusion of this conflict is dependent on Ukraine’s puppet masters; the United States and NATO, with their financial and military aid being the backbone of the war effort, namely destroying Ukraine in hopes of degrading Russia. Ukrainian military aid has dwindled, as reserves decreased, and stockpiles run dry. Early in the year we began seeing stories about how the aid is going to run out by September, but we continually saw more and more money and arms being sent to Ukraine, followed by a story on how this was going to be the last aid package. 

The resolution of this conflict hinges on Ukraine's masters, namely US, NATO, and EU imperialism, which provide vital financial and military support, forming the backbone of Kiev's war effort. Throughout 2023, there was a sense that the conflict might cease due to media coverage highlighting dwindling aid as reserves and artillery stockpiles not just in Ukraine but throughout the West, are outmatched by Russia.

But in a US empire that can still, at least for now, create money out of thin air to finance its debt, the Biden administration will strive to preserve its narrative and legacy in Ukraine ahead of the November elections.

The Ukrainian military is already struggling to find new recruits. Recent reports have indicated Ukraine is considering lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. As the conflict intensifies with the arrival of spring, we can expect this reduction in the conscription age drop even further over this year.

The most alarming prospect in this conflict lies in the scenario where Ukraine faces significant losses to the extent that monetary and military aid becomes insufficient. Biden remarked recently that if Russia were on the verge of victory, the United States would put boots on the ground in Ukraine. 

Regardless of the unfolding scenario, history imparts a crucial lesson from past U.S. engagements in war. American conflicts, whether direct or as proxy supporters, have seldom concluded definitively. The prolonged war on terror and the inconclusive U.S. departure from Afghanistan highlight this pattern. Recognizing this, the conflict in Ukraine may persist for years, driven by the interests of arms manufacturers. As Julian Assange once opined, the imperialists "want an endless war, not a successful one."

The European Union Could Cannibalize Itself

In Europe, 2023 presented formidable challenges, from the Russia/Ukraine conflict to economic and social upheavals. Attempts to cripple Russia's economy through sanctions have backfired, with concerns about potential energy crises and growing social unrest looming over the EU. Despite implementing measures such as capping gas prices, fast-tracking renewable energy projects, and and introducing "solidarity" rules for fuel sharing during shortages, the EU faces uncertainties.

Social unrest has thrown many nations in Europe into disarray. Poland and France have had trucker blockades and riots over effects from the conflict in Ukraine and internal disputes. While Poland and Ukraine claim to be mending their relationship, if the Polish people continue to block trade routes on the Ukrainian border and other acts of protest, it could force the Polish government to shift their position to adhere to their people’s needs.

In 2024, we may see internal divides arise on the global scale as Europe splits into opposing sides regarding the Ukraine war. The EU has already figured out how to bypass Viktor Orban’s continued vetoing of Ukraine, exposing itself as a thoroughly anti-democratic institution. How long until other countries are simply unwilling or unable to keep providing aid, but are forced to at the hand of those in Brussels? 

For Europe, the biggest aspect to look for in 2024 is the potential for a split in the EU on the issue of aiding Ukraine and trading with Russia. Slovakia and Hungary are the first EU nations to take question the endless aid for Ukraine, and we can expect more to join this emerging coalition as Ukraine's position deteriorates.

US and EU imperialism have invested too much in their proxy war with Russia to simply fold and make seek a deal, even though it would be interest of Europe to resume trade with Russia and reduce energy prices to pre-war prices, when cheap Russian natural gas was keeping large parts of Europe warm. 

While Slovakia and Hungary are the two biggest voices against aid to Ukraine, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy has computed that commitments for assistance between August and October 2023 dropped by nearly 90 percent in comparison to the corresponding period from the previous year. Protests in Germany at munitions factories are hindering a multi-year renewal of the EU fund designated for financing weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. 

When sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine commenced in 2022, reserves were ample, and prospects seemed promising. However, after two years of setbacks encountered by the Ukrainian military and increasingly discontent citizens, 2024 seems poised to be the year when the ramifications of fully supporting Ukraine truly take hold.

Stay tuned for subsequent editions, where we turn to Africa, West Asia, and the imperial core, United States.