Putin's Strategic Counter To The Rules-Based Order

Russian President Vladimir Putin is poised to arm proxy forces across various conflict zones. This is in response to NATO countries supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons. He aims to challenge the “rules-based international order” championed by The West, as he empowers anti-imperialist revolutionaries.

The Catalyst: Long-Range Weapons in Ukraine

Washington’s decision to provide Kiev with advanced long-range weaponry capable of striking Russia has escalated the conflict and provoked a formidable response from Moscow. Ukraine’s use of NATO weapons to attack Russia crosses Putin’s “red line,” as he sees it as evidence of NATO’s direct participation in the war and its imperialist ambitions.

Now, Moscow is threatening to deliver weapons with similar capabilities to proxy forces in conflict zones where Western interests are at stake. Ukraine has attacked Russian assets around the world, including in Syria and Sudan, for some time. Therefore, Russia's asymmetric response should come as no surprise.

Making matters worse, Ukraine attacked Russian nuclear defenses twice, within a week. Russia’s early warning Voronezh M radars are designed to detect nuclear attacks. This escalation is reckless, as Ukraine could not have executed it without Western intelligence support. The West clearly sanctioned these strikes within Russia, contradicting President Biden’s claim that Ukraine would not strike beyond the Russia-Ukraine border. Notably, the nuclear warning systems which were under attack were located in Krasnodar and Orenburg, 300 and 900 miles away from Ukrainian positions.

Who Are the Houthis? A Prime Candidate For Russian Weaponry

The Houthis  (Ansar Allah) are a key militia within the Resistance Axis, gaining prominence nearly a decade ago during Yemen's civil war. In 2015, they took over parliament, deposed the president, and have ruled the capital since. The Saudi-led coalition, comprising nine nations with substantial U.S. and UK support, opposed Ansar Allah by bombing and blockading Yemen, leading to severe famine.

In 2014, Ansar Allah captured Sana’a and placed former President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi under house arrest. Hadi escaped to Saudi Arabia, which recognized him as Yemen's legitimate president.

 Saudi forces escalated the conflict by launching cluster bombs on civilians, supplied by the US and UK. President Ali Abdullah Saleh initially retained power through treaty violations and then aligned with Ansar Allah until he was killed for treason. His ouster led to Ansar Allah becoming the de facto government of North Yemen.

In 2017, the Houthis launched a missile into Saudi airspace, marking a turn in their favor. The coalition gradually lessened as the UK withdrew the HMS Diamond after an attack. Following Ansar Allah’s 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia's Aramco oil refinery, the Saudis have limited their involvement in the conflict.

In 2022, Hadi relinquished power to Yemen's Presidential Council, while Ansar Allah formed a rival council. Mahdi al-Mashat currently leads the Supreme Political Council, while Abdul Malik Al Houthi leads the political movement. The US considers Ansar Allah as an Iranian proxy, hence their intervention on behalf of Yemen's deposed government, escalating the civil war into a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Currently, Ansar Allah has shifted its focus to Israel, responding to Hamas’s call for action. By blockading Israel on behalf of occupied Palestine, they’re enforcing the Geneva Convention on Genocide, despite being one of the poorest countries in the world.

They have disrupted strategic maritime routes in the Red Sea, blockading Israel by delaying 40% of its maritime traffic. Despite Western naval coalition airstrikes, Ansar Allah has strengthened its defenses, rendering most strikes ineffective.

In recent months, Ansar Allah upped their attacks on the coalition; a French warship exited the Red Sea after intense attacks, and Denmark dismissed its defense chief after a warship malfunctioned while engaging Ansar Allah. The Red Sea Crisis marks the first instance of large-scale attacks on U.S. naval and commercial vessels in the area. In fact, the Houthis recently forced a US warship to retreat.

Given the Houthi’s resilience against the Saudi-led coalition and their defense against the 2023 coalition, (which at one point involved 17 nations), they stand out as a prime candidate for Russian support. This could enable them to inflict serious damage on Israeli and NATO assets in the region.

Potential Conflict Zones

In regards to the Israeli-Palestine conflict, Russia could enhance the military capabilities of Iraqi and Syrian militias along with Hamas and Hezbollah. Such a move could hasten Israel’s downfall, as Russia and its allies have a history of supporting Resistance Axis forces.

Other conflict zones in which Russia could arm allies with long-rage weapons include:

The DPRK (North Korea): Along with long-range weapons, Russia could provide advanced satellite imagery to the DPRK as South Korea and Japan provoke Russia and China through joint naval exercises with the West.

Armenia: Russia could assist Armenia in its struggle against Azerbaijan. Despite Armenia’s recent strategic partnership with the U.S. and Russia’s friendship with both Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia could covertly arm mercenaries against Israeli and Azeri proxy forces.

Francophone Africa: Russia could bolster its support for French-speaking African countries such as Mali, the Congo, Chad, Niger, and the Central African Republic.

Transnistria; a pro-Russian enclave that broke away from Moldova, Transnistria is frequently targeted in attempts to open a Moldovan front to attack Russian ammunition depots and Russian peacekeepers.

Strategic Naval Diplomacy

In a show of force, Putin is giving the West a taste of its own medicine by expanding Russia's anti-imperial alliance into the Western Hemisphere. This month, the Russian Navy will conduct a diplomatic mission in the Caribbean, visiting Cuba and Venezuela with warships and long-range bombers. 

The Russian Navy's visit to Cuban and Venezuelan ports signifies a strategic shift. However, as the submarines will not be armed, this move is not comparable to the Cuban Missile Crisis. 

Nonetheless, it is not merely for show; Russia is demonstrating its ability to rival U.S. influence in the region. 

By operating in America's backyard, Moscow is sending a clear message about its red lines in Ukraine as Russia challenges U.S. hegemony.

Russia Unafraid To Take Countermeasures 

Putin’s strategy to arm resistance fighters against Western Imperialism marks a pivotal shift in Russian policy. By providing long-range weapons to groups opposed to Western influence, he aims to counteract their support for Ukraine and disrupt the so-called “rules-based order.” This comes at a time when Western countries are threatening to launch troops into Ukraine, while Russia is threatening to attack NATO airfields housing nuclear armed jets promised to Ukraine.

As these dynamics unfold, the world must grapple with the increasing risks associated with evolving alliances amid such escalatory moves.